TORONTO — Ontario could see COVID-19 infection rates spike sharply in the New Year, regardless of the still-unknown impact of the new Omicron variant.
But the province's Science Advisory Table says increasing the speed of vaccinations for children between five and eleven in the coming weeks would help keep infection rates down, as would the reimposition of some public health measures.
Discounting Omicron while warning it is likely to drive cases even higher, it released new projections Tuesday showing there could be up to 3,000 new cases a day by the middle of January, straining the capacity of hospital intensive care units.
The panel said infections are likely to triple the current daily average of just under 1,000 if Ontario sticks with its current public health restrictions and 30 per cent of children between five and eleven are fully vaccinated by the end of this month.
In the event that 50 per cent of kids are fully vaccinated, then the models predict 1,500 to 1,800 daily COVID-19 cases halfway through January.
In a third hypothetical situation, additional public health restrictions resulting in a 15 per cent decrease in transmission rates – combined with 30 per cent of children being fully immunized – would keep new infections to about 1,100 a day.
The projections are based on a consensus across models from four scientific teams
Around 22 per cent of Ontario children between five and eleven had received a first dose of vaccine as of Monday.
Public health units such as Windsor-Essex County have recently reimposed some restrictions including capacity limits for indoor and outdoor gatherings, and restaurants.
The province reported 928 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, including 424 among unvaccinated individuals, 401 involving fully vaccinated people, and 26 cases where the patients were partially vaccinated.
The vaccination status of the remaining 77 cases was unavailable.
The current seven-day average for daily cases is 975, compared with 794 last week and 675 two weeks ago.
Ontario's most recent COVID-19 positivity test rate is 3.8 per cent, the highest since May when it was 4.3 per cent.
The Science Advisory Table cautioned that low global vaccine coverage means new variants can be expected to arise around the world.
