THUNDER BAY — The stakes are high for Confederation College as the Ontario government considers how to implement the federal cap on new international student permits.
Foreign students currently make up over 50 per cent of the college's enrolment of 4,700.
In an interview Wednesday, Confederation president Kathleen Lynch said reducing new study visas for two years "will really hit us for four years, because most of the programs that students enrol in are two-year programs. A decline is going to impact us longer than the two years."
The precise ramifications for the college remain unknown.
Although the overall cut across Canada will be 35 per cent, Ontario could see a reduction of 50 per cent.
"We are not sure exactly what that impact is going to be," Lynch stated. "We're going to go through some rough scenarios to see what that means. But for the time being, all our current students are fine, and will able to complete their programming, and we're not making any rash moves until we have more information."
She noted that the number of international permits allocated to each institution is up to the provincial government to determine.
"I just spoke with [Thunder Bay-Atikokan MPP] Kevin Holland. I know our province is going to want to work with all colleges and universities to make sure they have a fair allocation, and that we can continue to be sustainable."
International students have become increasingly important for schools such as Confederation College as they struggle to bring in enough revenue to maintain programs at a time when there aren't enough domestic students applying.
"We wouldn't be able to offer the breadth of programming that we offer without international students. Definitely, that's a concern. It keeps us viable for all students by having that enrolment," Lynch said.
She expressed confidence Confederation will survive, but said "it's going to be challenging for us."
The college president also worries about the image Canada will present now to international students.
"Is it an attractive market? Will they want to come? . . . We have heard from a long-standing employee in India that people there are not sure about the future of coming to Canada and to colleges and universities in Ontario. We'll have to see how that plays out. It's a competitive market for international students, not just across Canada but with other countries, Australia, England, the U.S."
Lynch believes Confederation is well-placed to take advantage of the government's plan to work towards a preferred designated learning institution model, where schools will have to demonstrate they are capable of supporting the students they enrol, and that the community can absorb them.
"I'm confident in a couple of years when we move to that model Confederation is going to score very highly. We have housing, we've created more housing on campus, we have all the student supports in place. And our students have done really well in terms of meeting labour needs in the Northwest."
Lakehead University president says cut will have a dramatic impact on sector's financial health
At Lakehead University, president Gillian Siddall said the size of the cap on student visas will have a "dramatic" impact on the health of post-secondary institutions at a time when a cut and freeze to tuition, and declining real per-student operating grants from the government, are placing "enormous pressure" on universities including Lakehead.
Siddall pointed out the federal plan does not affect current international students, but the cap will impact Lakehead's ability to recruit new undergraduate students from foreign countries.
This year, about 1,900 students, or over 20 per cent of LU's student population of more than 9,000, are international students.
"We are currently seeking additional clarity on how the federal government's policy will be operationalized in Ontario, and what specific guidelines will be provided to universities," Siddall said.
Ontario institutions, she said, are already in a heightened level of competition with schools across Canada to get provincial attestation letters into the hands of inbound students as soon as possible, so they don't opt for another country instead.
"Over the coming days, we are committed to working with the provincial government to ensure the approach to allocation of study permits reflects the high standards we have put in place that recognize performance and critical supports, such as rigorous recruitment practices, strong and transparent admissions processes, and wraparound student supports, including helping them find housing."
The president of the Council of Ontario Universities has said Ottawa is unfairly punishing responsible institutions together with "bad actors" in the post-secondary field.
Steve Orsini is calling for a more targeted approach that doesn't impact "good performers" that rely on revenue from international students.
According to a Canadian Press report, at least 10 Ontario universities already anticipate that a combined operating deficit of $175 million this year will balloon to $273 million next year.
Lakehead's provisional deficit for 2023/2024 is just over $5 million.
Prior to this week's federal announcement, TBnewswatch asked a spokesperson if LU expects another deficit next year.
The university did not answer the question directly, but said "While Lakehead has taken every responsible step to maintain a balanced operating budget, the university, due to its size and locations, is more susceptible to increased competition and economic challenges. We continue to advocate extensively to government, emphasizing that the current funding model is not sustainable for Lakehead – the only comprehensive university in Northern Ontario."
Officials of both Lakehead and Confederation have indicated they appreciate the recommendations of a blue-ribbon panel last fall that recommended increased operating grants for Ontario's post-secondary institutions, lifting the tuition freeze, and special consideration for Northern Ontario schools.
"All of that is an important part of the mix, and how we deal with this reduction [in international students] that we're going to face," Lynch said.
On Tuesday, the president of the Lakehead University Student Union said the federal government is unfairly punishing international students, and suggested post-secondary institutions might now be forced to raise fees for foreign students even higher.
