THUNDER BAY - Due to strict public health measures, community spread of COVID-19 in the province of Ontario may have reached its peak, but in long-term care the numbers continue on a troubling trend upward.
Public health officials released updated modeling data for the COVID-19 pandemic the province and the numbers appear to show that Ontario is trending toward a best-case scenario.
According to modeling released earlier this month, data showed the province would likely reach its peak of confirmed cases in May.
“The public health interventions, both large and small, physical distancing, a very big sacrifice, but also smaller things like hand hygiene, that has accelerated the peak to now,” said Steini Brown, Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto during a media briefing on Monday.
“We are looking at a peak that is right now for community transmission of COVID-19.”
Brown added that a peak in the number of cases doesn’t mean the pandemic is over.
“It doesn’t mean the disease has left the population or passed over so to speak. It just means the current level of interventions is slowing down the spread of infections.”
There are currently more than 11,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ontario and 613 deaths.
Earlier modeling showed in the worst-case scenario, the province could see more than 300,000 cases throughout the course of the pandemic. New modeling data now shows the number of cases could be lower than 20,000, well below even the expected case projection of 80,000.
“What we’ve been able to do, and when I say we, I mean all of us, everyone who has participate in public health initiatives, you have made a difference,” said Matthew Anderson, President and CEO of Ontario Health. “The ICU is trending better than our best case scenario.”
According to the modeling, worst case scenarios indicated more than 5,000 ICU beds would be needed by mid-May, while the best-case scenario would require fewer than 400.
However, while the trends are moving toward the best-case scenario in terms of community spread, the virus continues to take a heavy toll in long-term care facilities.
“We are at peak in the community but we are still on the accelerating upswing of the curve in long-term care homes,” Brown said.
“All these curves are going up, both residents and staff,” Anderson added. “You can also see what would strike as a high number of deaths in long-term care homes.”
There are 127 long-term care facilities in the province experiencing an outbreak of COVID-19 and more than half of provincial deaths have occurred in these facilities.
But with the number of ICU cases lower than originally anticipated will allow the province to assist the situation in long-term care.
“We have two curves going on, one in community and one in long-term care,” he said. “We can use the capacity in our acute care system to support long-term care.”
And while the province may be at the peak of COVID-19 community spread, public health officials are warning that this doesn’t mean people should let their guard down any time soon.
“We have to remember that the data we are seeing today reflects the infections that took place two or three weeks before,” said Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health.“We have to give it time and people have to really stay the course for now.”
Yaffe added that the peak in cases, while good news, can also change and be prolonged and the province will not be able to lift public health measures like a switch. It will be gradual and planned so as to avoid a second-wave.
“The peak is not just one point in time, the peak can last a bit and we don’t want it to start going up again,” she said. “We don’t want to have a second wave. We would prefer to avoid having a second wave by taking things slowly and carefully.”
“Peaks are not a single day,” Brown added. “They are not a single spike. They can be bumpy and be prolonged. But we are in the peak right now.”
