THUNDER BAY - Had the province not taken any preventative measures in the face of the COVID-19 outbreak, more than 100,000 people could have died as the pandemic ran its course.
The outlook with preventative measures currently in place is in the range of 3,000 and 15,000 deaths.
“Over the full course of this pandemic, which may last for 18 months or even two years, because we may have a smaller secondary or tertiary wave, over the full two year course of the pandemic, had we done nothing Ontario may have suffered 100,000 deaths,” said Peter Donnelly, president and CEO of Public Health during a media briefing on Friday. “Thankfully that is not the position we are in.”
In terms of confirmed cases, the province would see 100,000 cases by the end of April alone with no preventative measures, while measures already in place would see 80,000 cases, and more restrictive measures could result in 12,500 cases by April 30.
The modeling projections were presented to the public after Premier Doug Ford said on Thursday that he wanted to be as transparent as possible and share with Ontarians the same information he has access to.
Data was collected by Public Health Ontario and Ontario universities led by the COVID-19 command table. However, Donnelly said modeling any pandemic is challenging.
“Projections and modeling of a brand new viral disease are very inexact,” he said. “But what is important is that we use them early and quickly to advise us as to the correct measures to take and that is what has happened in Ontario.”
“Recognizing we get new information about this virus and outbreak on a daily basis, we will of course continue to refine our projections, our models, and our advice.”
Donnelly added that the province is following a similar trajectory of the United States, which is not the epicenter of the global pandemic.
“But I would hasten to say that when one tracks cases, it really is rather difficult to know exactly where you stand,” he said. “You have to watch it extremely carefully. It is rather dependent on who you test for the disease.”
According to the data the mortality rate in the province is also much higher for people over the age of 80, which is in line with global data.
“Thus far it is 16 per cent,” Donnelly said. “That is actually a little less than global experience where the evidence from around the world that suggests the mortality over the age of 80 is over 20 per cent.”
What the numbers in the province will actually be depends largely on the actions of the public and how closely preventative measures are followed such as social distancing, staying home except for essential reasons, and practicing proper hand washing.
“The average person needs to do the things they have been asked to do,” Donnelly said. “They need to maintain physical distance from others. They need to stay at home unless they are an essential worker or if they need to go out for essential tasks and those tasks need to be tightly defined.”
According to Donnelly, every year in the province approximately 1,350 people die from seasonal flu, with a particularly bad year perhaps raising the number to 1,500 deaths.
“When you think the mortality of this disease is up to 10 times higher and you remember that we have no vaccine, no specific treatment, and this is a disease entirely new to the population, suddenly he figure of 15,000 becomes entirely logically and comprehensible,” he said.
“There is a range because where we end up depends on all of us. If we follow the rules, if we do our best to socially distance, if we look after the elderly and our society, we can get in that range and strive to get as low as possible in that range.”
