COVID-19 risk on the rise, DeMille says

THUNDER BAY — A confluence of factors including new variants and the change of seasons is expected to cause a spike in COVID-19 infections in the coming weeks and months, says Thunder Bay’s medical officer of health.

In a Friday interview, Dr. Janet DeMille said she’s already seeing some indications in local wastewater data of “a significant increase” in infections.

While cautioning it’s early data — and that available data is also limited — DeMille said she hopes local residents will recognize the rising risk of COVID-19 and respond by taking more precautions like masking indoors.

“Certainly we’re not going down — we plateaued, and I have more recent evidence that our numbers are now starting to go up, and we’re watching that closely.”

COVID indicators across the province have been on the rise, with the Ministry of Health on Thursday posting the highest weekly death toll since spring, with 109 deaths related to the virus.

Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. Kieran Moore, said last week he plans to issue new guidance on masking — though the government says the advice will be for individuals, not for governments to reintroduce mask mandates

Infections were always expected to rise with the arrival of colder weather, but public health authorities are concerned that will be compounded by the rise of several new Omicron sub-variants that appear to be better able to evade immunity from vaccines and prior infection.

The BA.5 sub-variant continues to drive most current infections, but is already on the decline provincially and other sub-variants are expected to become dominant over the coming months, DeMille said.

She’s worried about the strain that could put on the local health system heading into winter.

Along with flu season — which she said appears to be making an early appearance this year — COVID-19 is likely to “cause a lot of disruption” in health care, as well as schools and workplaces, she said.

“Hospitals have managed through surges of flu in the past. But when you get the combined implications of COVID, flu, and all the other respiratory and presentations to [emergency rooms]… it really combines to put significant pressure.”

It’s a good time for local residents to start taking greater precautions to reduce their risk of catching COVID-19 and spreading it to others, she said.

“It would be helpful to have more people masking in order to manage the spread of COVID — or flu or other respiratory viruses,” she said.

While acknowledging many might find a return to masking unappealing, she said “it is an important tool we need to use to navigate the coming months.”

Vaccines remain the most effective tool for protecting people against COVID-19, she said, especially with bivalent booster doses that target the Omicron variant now available.

She hopes those who are skeptical of getting another dose of the vaccines will look at the data that shows they remain effective in protecting people against hospitalization or death from COVID-19 – and regular boosters are key, especially for those who are older or immunocompromised.

“I get it that people are tired, they’ve come forward for the vaccine and it’s frustrating that we keep recommending the next vaccine and it feels like a bit much,” she said. “This is the challenge that COVID-19 has presented to us – it keeps changing, it keeps coming forward with new variants or sub-variants.”

The age of those considered at highest risk has also changed, DeMille emphasized.

The Ministry of Health now identifies those 65 and older as being at higher risk of COVID, reduced from those 70 and older, she said.

Those in the 65-plus group, as well as anyone who is immunocompromised, are strongly encouraged to get their bivalent booster as soon as three months after their last dose or COVID-19 infection, she said.

Those 60 to 69 have much lower vaccine uptake than those in the 70 to 79 group locally, DeMille noted.

Only 41.9 per cent of that younger group had come forward for a fourth dose, compared to 65.6 per cent in the 70 to 79 group as of Oct. 11, the most recent data available from the health unit.

Children aged four and under are also considered high risk for COVID-19, something DeMille said many parents may not realize.

“We have fairly low uptake of the COVID vaccine for kids under the age of [five],” she said. “The second-highest rate of hospitalization is in the very young infants and toddlers, for COVID. The highest rate is those over the age of 70.”