THUNDER BAY -- It's just about the dead of winter in Thunder Bay, the time that Environment Canada says the temperature bottoms out.
That point is determined by examining the average long-term temperature for every day of the year. The day the average is at its lowest is considered the dead of winter.
In Thunder Bay, according to Environment Canada, the lowest average daily temperature is typically recorded this week, around Jan. 18 or Jan. 19.
"In the coming days we sort of cross a threshold and those average temperatures start to climb again after dropping through the month of December, and certainly it is right around this time frame in the Thunder Bay area. We would probably call this the dead of winter," said meteorologist Jeff Coulson, reached via phone.
Coulson noted records show on Jan. 15 the average daytime high in Thunder Bay is -8.8 C while the average overnight low is -21.3 C. A week from now, records show, those averages climb fractionally to -8.5 C for the high temperature and minus 21.2 C for the overnight low.
But this year, Environment Canada is forecasting a significant departure from the normal mid-January trend in the Thunder Bay area.
"There's nothing fractional about how much our temperatures are going to be above normal, not just in Thunder Bay, but across northwestern Ontario during the course of the next couple of weeks," Coulson said.
Whereas the usual daytime maximum in Thunder Bay this time of year is about -9 C, the forecast calls for highs to climb gradually through the week from -2 C on Monday to 2 C from Friday through Sunday.
Coulson said this milder-than-normal trend could continue right through the end of January, adding that there is "not a lot of active weather...nothing major at this point, no major weather systems" on the horizon during this period.
