THUNDER BAY – A hugely ambitious plan in front of Thunder Bay’s city council sketches a blueprint for a city that’s carbon-neutral by 2050, while leaving question marks around major funding and implementation details.
The 88-page Climate-Forward City: Thunder Bay Net-Zero Strategy would see the community reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90 per cent by 2050, a transformation consultants compared to the construction of the national railway and highway systems while presenting the plan Monday.
After receiving the first report, councillors will vote on whether to adopt the strategy when a final version is presented on June 7. Residents can read the plan at the city’s website, and a virtual launch event is planned for May 18.
The goal of hitting net-zero emissions by 2050 is based on Canada’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement to hold global warming to 1.5 C.
The strategy's targets are non-binding, but if adopted, could have major implications on municipal budgets and policies, in areas from transit to zoning. However, its ambitious goals will depend on major investments and legislation from federal and provincial government.
The path to net-zero by 2050 includes targets like electrifying the public transit fleet by 2035, ensuring all new vehicles sold are electric by 2040, increasing industrial efficiency by 50 per cent, and locating 90 per cent of new development inside targeted intensification areas.
Coun. Andrew Foulds said the plan's large ambitions were necessary to meet the scale of the climate challenge.
“This plan is bold, there’s no question of that – but remember it’s a 30-year plan, and we should've been bold probably 20 years ago, to be honest,” he told his colleagues. “We said it’s a climate emergency. I hate to use hyperbole, but the crisis is now… if we don’t do our share now, we’re going to be in trouble”
Thunder Bay would be joining the federal government and municipalities from Sudbury and Sault Ste. Marie to Toronto and Edmonton in pledging to reach net-zero by 2050.
A greenhouse gas inventory found Thunder Bay emitted approximately 1,200 kt CO2e (one million, two-hundred thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2016, the baseline year used in the strategy.
That works out to just over 11 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per person, about on par with the provincial average, said Summer Stevenson, the city’s acting sustainability coordinator.
Technical modelling done by consultants found the city’s emissions would fall by only about five per cent by 2050 under a “business as planned” scenario, mostly thanks to some anticipated building and vehicle efficiencies.
“[That] really shows us that targeted interventions are needed, because business as usual just isn’t working when it comes to climate change,” said Stevenson.
City council’s declaration of a climate emergency last year helped set the stage for the ambitious strategy, she said.
“If we agree we’re living in a climate emergency, then we know that climate change is really an existential threat,” she said. “If we look at the most recent and consistent scientific evidence, it shows we need to try really, really hard to ensure that global warming does not exceed 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.”
Three sectors account for the bulk of planned emissions reductions: buildings (28 per cent), industry (25 per cent), and transport (22 per cent).
Other areas include renewable energy (6 per cent), waste (5 per cent), and land use and natural areas (5 per cent). The strategy also leaves a 10 per cent “carbon gap” that would need to be addressed through future actions or new technologies.
The plan would be expensive, but will also generate economic opportunity and eventually pay for itself, a financial analysis found.
The net-zero strategy calls for an investment of $3.8 billion in today’s dollars over 30 years, estimating returns with a present value of $4.6 billion.
That works out to an annual investment of 2.5 to 3 per cent of the community’s annual economic output, the report calculates.
The biggest investment would be in buildings, largely retrofits for energy efficiency, totaling $3.8 billion (present value $2.1 billion) by 2050. To meet emission reduction targets, most of that investment would need to be completed over the next decade.
That investment could be the central pillar of a post-COVID economic recovery strategy “due to the associated local job creation and social equity impacts,” the strategy suggests.
Retrofitting residential buildings alone would require over 14,000 new full-time workers, the document estimates. That would help make up for other jobs that might be lost, such as in traditional vehicle maintenance, it says.
The level of investment envisioned in the strategy may be a heavy lift, but the city expects help from the federal government, which announced its own target of net-zero emissions by 2050 while the city's strategy was under development.
That federal target will be accompanied by policies and funding that will help the city achieve its goal, the strategy anticipates. Stevenson pointed to $15 billion for climate initiatives in the newest federal budget, for example.
The city’s strategy doesn’t set out exactly how needed investments will be funded, but increased investment from provincial and federal governments will be key.
“A lot of it does come down to funding,” Stevenson said. “Ensuring there’s adequate funding to carry out some of these initiatives will be extremely important.”
Mayor Bill Mauro said Monday councillors needed to see clearer information about the cost implications to the city. While the strategy's targets would be non-binding, he pointed out that adopting it would still come with major implications.
“Whatever strategies are implemented will be incorporated into the city’s policies, whether that’s in the zoning bylaw, the building guidelines, energy requirements,” he said. “There’s a cost to that, and I think council just needs to know what that is.”
The municipal government has exceeded its own internal emissions reductions targets, cutting them by 26 per cent from a 2009 baseline.
Under the strategy, the city would commit to further climate action. These include applying a “climate lens” in decision-making, prioritizing infrastructure funding that reduces GHG emissions, and retrofitting most municipal buildings by 2035.
Properly designed, the changes in the strategy could also improve social equity and quality of life, the strategy envisions.
“For example, a retrofit program tailored for low-income residents living in inefficient older buildings can help improve their comfort and reduce instances of energy poverty, freeing up resident income for other life necessities,” the document reads. “Improved and accessible transit and active transportation infrastructure and programs can help low-income, senior, and differently-abled residents to have access.”
A final report on the net-zero emissions strategy is expected to come back to city council on June 7, when councillors will vote on whether to adopt the plan.
Residents can learn more and read the plan at the Get Involved website.
