THUNDER BAY -- "It's an unpredictable business," Thunder Bay Police chief J.P. Levesque said after he presented city council the details of his department's $1.1-million proposed increase for its 2017 budget.
The unpredictability of Thunder Bay's law enforcement needs has become a predictable fixture of the city's annual budget process, which began on Thursday.
Officer overtime, legal costs, and an abnormally high call rate per capita have chronically driven policing over budget.
In every case, the municipality has had to absorb the overrun costs but council has repeatedly ordered Levesque to shave his budget as he's warned them not to underestimate the cost of unforeseen circumstances.
The compromise has drafted a $40,267,300 budget. Its 2.8 per cent funding bump is a smaller increase than the department requested in 2017 and 2016 but Levesque and some councilors are presenting it as a budget that could be balanced.
"I don't want you coming back in six months and saying, 'I'm sorry I'm over budget.' I'll have a problem with that," said Coun. Rebecca Johnson.
"To me, if we are giving you what you feel is necessary, I will vote for that. I'm not happy to vote for it because it's a huge increase but at the same point in time, I'm prepared to do that, as long as you're going to to do the very best you can to keep it within this budget and not come back again in six months. To me, this is your budget and you'd better work within it."
Though non-committal, Levesque responded optimistically.
"I don't want to be back here in six months presenting a negative variance," he said.
"I will do everything in my power to try to stay within budget. Having said that, the one slide where we talked about the unpredictability of policing, we don't know from day to day, week to week what we're going to run into."
In 2016, local police ran into eight homicides that cost an average of $43,000 each in pay and overtime. Its officers responded to seven armed standoffs, most of which took place in the first four months. In June, it executed Project Recover, the largest seizure in the service's history.
Police also incurred what Levesque referred to as a "significant increase" in legal costs, including those associated with the inquest into the deaths of seven First Nations students and complaints over officer conduct. Costs resulting from a systemic review into the department's policing of Indigenous people will impact both 2016 and 2017 budgets.
Provincial funding represents another budget unknown. Ontario is condensing three funding envelopes into one, which will be called Policing Efficiency and Modernization. Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO) leaders intend to seek clarification on the new fund's details in a meeting with Premier Kathleen Wynne on Friday.
"Municipalities across the province are really concerned about this," Levesque said, adding it could impact 13 full-time officers.
"It was really short notice for one thing and we really need to get a better sense of what it looks like. If it's status quo for 2017, that would be great but what does it look like going into 2018?"
Levesque said as many as eight officers could be compromised who lead beat programs, school resources and Aboriginal liasons.
A new position associated with the police's Human Rights Change Project will add 0.03 per cent to the proposed 2017 municipal levy. That increase precisely cancels Thunder Bay District Social Services Administration Board (TBDSSAB) savings announced Thursday.
Council maintained the proposed 3.53 per cent levy (3.07 per cent after growth). The next budget deliberation meeting will take place Tuesday.
No budget decisions have been finalized.
