Population stagnation is a concern in Thunder Bay

THUNDER BAY — City manager Norm Gale says Thunder Bay’s low population growth is a significant issue facing the community going forward.

Earlier this week, Statistics Canada published year-over-year population changes in more than 150 communities across the country. Thunder Bay’s population grew by just 264 people, largely fueled by international immigration, a 0.2 per cent growth rate.

That placed the city last in the country of census metropolitan areas of 100,000 or more people, and 143rd of 157 communities measured. In Ontario, Thunder Bay was 43rd of 45 communities listed, ahead of only Pembroke and Hawkesbury, the latter the only community of 10,000 or more to see its population decline.

“We see that the community is not growing, or it’s growing slower than any other large urban centre in Canada. But it’s not just the absence of growth that’s troubling. It’s the fact that our population is aging,” Gale said.

“And if this is not corrected, if there’s no change to this, the day will come when more people are drawing services that there are people providing services. This is a serious strategic issue.”

Only 11 of the 45 communities in Ontario had population growths of less than one per cent, with Carleton Place and Wasaga Beach topping the list at 3.9 per cent. North Bay was the top Northern Ontario community, with a 3.3 per cent growth rate, adding 2,534 residents between July 2021 and July 2022.

Nationwide, Moncton, N.B. topped the list, with a 5.3 per cent growth rate, while Halifax was second at 4.4 per cent.

There are number of factors for Thunder Bay’s rate of growth, says Northern Policy Institute CEO Charles Cirtwill, who pointed out that between 2010 and 2018, Thunder Bay actually had net positive growth when it came to intra-provincial migration, drawing more people from other parts of Ontario than who left.

Over the past year, however, 584 more people left the province for other parts of the country, and 137 more left for elsewhere in the province than moved to Thunder Bay.

Another factor is birth and death rates, Cirtwill said.

“More relevant today is that if you look at the “Factors of population growth for Thunder Bay” negative natural increase has either been greater than or close to equal to net interprovincial migration since around. So, the issue isn’t that people are leaving, it is that people are passing away and we are having fewer babies — both natural results of our aging population,” Cirtwill said, in an email response.

“So yes, absolutely this has impacts on ability to attract employees — that the length of time that jobs are going unfilled after being posted is getting longer is just one demonstration of that. The expanding use of automatic and self-checkouts is another.”

Immigration, Cirtwill said, remains a key factor in finding a solution. The city attracted 1,412 international immigrants to Thunder Bay between July 2021 and July 2022. But it’s not the only solution.

“The other is addressing the continued underemployment of Indigenous peoples, particularly young Indigenous men. Those young men are likely under-counted in these population figures — so they represent a labour pool that official numbers don’t even count as being here.”

Thunder Bay Mayor Ken Boshcoff said he believes there are 15 per cent more people than recorded by Statistics Canada, adding that’s where a lot of the city’s financial problems come from, having to provide services for people that aren’t officially on the books, and hence aren’t counted when senior levels of government hand out transfer payments.

“We’ll ride with 120,000, but the police know, the hospitals know, the health-care system knows, and even the mercantile areas know it’s more than that. There’s more people around and if you spent one hour at city hall you’d know there are a lot more people wandering around the city than actually meet any census,” Boshcoff said.

The mayor said the onus is still on the city and its leaders to convince people that Thunder Bay is still one of the best places to raise a family.

“And, if you sell your place in Toronto for a million bucks, you’re going to be able to buy a $300,000 home that is the absolute equivalent or better,” Boshcoff said.