THUNDER BAY — The city's violent crime rate puts Thunder Bay in line with many American cities, according to a recent Fraser Institute report.
The Canadian cities with the highest crime rates – including Thunder Bay – are comparable to some American cities, although national averages for both violent crime rates and property crime rates are indeed higher in the U.S., according to the study, authored by Lakehead University professor of economics, Livio Di Matteo.
"I think Canadians would be surprised that there are very many American cities with crime rates that are lower than Canadian cities, even though, on average, their crime rate is higher," Di Matteo told Newswatch.
American cities take the first 17 places in Di Matteo's joint Canada-U.S. ranking of the maximum violent crime rates from the 2019–2022 period. The Memphis metropolitan area sits at the top of the list with 1310.8 violent crimes per 100,000 people.
At number 18, Winnipeg is the highest ranked Canadian city. Its violent crime rate is listed as 675.1 per 100,000, just over half the rate in Memphis and comparable to Fresno, California.
Thunder Bay is ranked 29th, just above Santa Fe, New Mexico, with 546.1 violent crimes per 100,00 people. That's second highest rank among Canadian cities.
The city’s closest American neighbour, Duluth, ranks 244th on the list.
Asked why Thunder Bay’s violent crime rate is so different from Duluth's, Di Matteo said the study did not look at determinants of crime but provides the public with “a benchmark” to see how cities in Canada and the U.S. compare, “if we are doing better or worse.”
“There certainly is potential for future work trying to look at the determinants,” he said.
There were challenges in gathering and comparing data for the two countries, said Di Matteo.
“That period is a bit problematic for a number of reasons. First, there's the pandemic. There's actually a drop in some of the crime rates in 2020 than they pick up. The US also has a transition to a new data gathering system in 2021, so that year is missing,” he said.
To account for the missing data, Di Matteo looked at the maximum violent crime rate during that period for each jurisdiction.
Another hurdle Di Matteo had to overcome for the study was the definition of violent crime between Canada and the U.S.
An assault that causes no bodily harm is a violent crime in Canada but not the U.S., he explained.
“We had to filter those out of the Canadian ones to make them, in a sense, more directly comparable to the American ones,” said Di Matteo.
The study also looked at property crime rates, where two Canadian cities ranked highest.
Lethbridge, Alberta, and Kelowna, B.C. had the highest maximum property crime rates between 2019 and 2022, according to the study.
Thunder Bay is 36th on that list.
“One of the reasons we did the study is that Canadians often think that Canada is more peaceable,” said Di Matteo.
"On average, it is. I mean, our homicide rate is lower than the American rate. Our overall violent crime rate is lower than the American rate. Our property crime rate tends to actually be a bit above the American rate."
The study shows Canadian property crime rates overtaking American rates as of 2017, although average property crimes rates over the whole 2004-2022 period are 8 per cent higher in the U.S
The current report is one chapter in a larger study. Di Matteo said the next chapter, which will have regional comparisons, will be released in the coming months.
